DraftKings continues to be one of the hottest daily fantasy sites. Even though it’s slightly smaller in overall size than FanDuel, it’s the site of choice for tens of thousands of fantasy sports fans.

Having said that, it doesn’t matter how popular DraftKings is if you’re unable to win. Whether you’re playing fantasy football, baseball, soccer or golf, it’s the chance to win cash prizes that keeps you playing.

How do you win over the long run? It’s a matter of doing solid research, knowing how to draft good talent, watching your competitors’ lineups and managing your bankroll. It’s more complex than it sounds. Entire books can be written on each of those steps.

For example, bankroll management entails more than just knowing how much money you have in play. It also takes into account how to get through losing streaks, splitting your roll between low-stakes and high-stakes contests, and, of course, paying taxes on your winnings.

JJ gives you the sharp edge on how to beat DraftKings Sportsbook. JJ is a sports handicapper with over 10 years of experience and a healthy ROI. On the NFL DraftKings page, you can place a $10 bet on the Titans -10 and the Chargers -4.5. DraftKings Sportsbook Single Bets. The DraftKings betting site charges you a vig (or a percentage of your bet) of -110for each of these single-game NFL bets, which means the site will take 10% of your bet for itself. DraftKings, Inc. Is a leading skill-based Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) gaming destination for fans in North America and the UK to compete in single-day online games for cash and prizes across the largest variety of professional sports.

I’ll boil down the most important points in this two-part series.

Updated for 2019-2020 NFL season

A Crash course on Winning at DraftKings

The current landing page at DraftKings. Cannot help but notice that you’ll get a free entry with your first deposit!

Since NFL is the hottest fantasy sport by far, I’ll use examples from football. But don’t let that throw you. The 10 points we’ll cover below and in an upcoming post apply whether you’re playing daily fantasy baseball, golf, hockey, basketball or any other sport.

Let’s get on with the first key…

1. Adjust Your Draft Strategy By Contest Format – Cash Game or Tourney

That advice might seem trite. But contest format plays a huge role in how you draft talent. Your priorities will change with the size of the contest and its payout structure.

We’ve talked about this in the past, mostly as it pertains to guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments and 50/50s (cash games). Here’s the gist:

Cash game line-up’s vs GPP Tourney line-ups.

If you’re playing in a large-field tournament, the payout structure is going to be top-heavy. Approximately 10-15% of the field will end up in a cash position, and most of the money will go to the top 10 players. That being the case, you need to take risks to land in a cash position. You need to draft guys who might have a breakout night.

If you’re playing in a 50/50, the payout structure will be flatter. Half of the entrants get paid, and everyone gets paid the same amount. You don’t need to take as many risks because you’re not trying to land in the top 10 of the field. You just need to end up in the 50th percentile.

Here’s one way to think about the draft – the flatter the payout structure, the more guaranteed points you want to log. That includes 50/50s and head-to-heads. The more top-heavy the payout structure, the more breakout performances you need if you hope to cash.

2. Tread Carefully When Drafting Sleepers

Everyone dreams of picking a sleeper who breaks out and has a huge night. The team owner not only cashes, but ends up looking like a fantasy sports master. When it works, it almost seems like magic.

The problem is, most fantasy players find that picking sleepers rarely works to their advantages. They pick speculative talent, hoping for a miracle. But when the dust clears, they find their sleepers still sleeping.

It’s not that picking sleepers is a bad fantasy play. It can work stupendously well if you know what you’re doing.

That’s the key: being selective.

Remember, a low salary doesn’t imply hidden talent. More often than not, it means the player isn’t expected to turn in a major performance that week.

Drafting sleepers can be a great tactic in building a winning roster. But picking players who break out takes research and a fair amount of luck. It’s not just throwing darts at a board. Listen to the talking heads each week but remember that so are thousands of others. Find those guys who aren’t being talked about so much but who look like they might end up with quality playing time due to an injury or opponent or other myriad of factors.

3. Check The Latest Injury Report

This should go without saying. But every day, fantasy players at DraftKings clearly forget to check the injury report before constructing their lineups. When game time arrives, they’re stuck with players who end up missing their games.

For example, according to the latest NFL injury report (at the time of writing), the Falcons’ Jeremy Langford is out with an “undisclosed injury”. Is he going to make their first season game against the New York Jets? Who knows? He’s currently listed as “Questionable”. If he ends up missing training camp or some games, you don’t want him on your roster.

The same goes for Jaelon Acklin, wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens. He’s also dealing with an undisclosed injury and may miss training camp and/or some games. Will he play that first week against the Jaguars? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess. His status is also listed as “Questionable”.

The point is that you should always check the most recent injury report to make sure your lineup is filled with guys who are going to show up. The last thing you want to do is waste your salary cap on players who will add zero points to your score and your chances to win.

4. Learn How To Work DraftKings’ Bonus Points

The scoring system at DraftKings includes a few bonus items that a lot of team owners neglect. If your players hit certain numbers, you’ll earn extra points!

Take a look at the DraftKings’ scoring system for weekly fantasy football. Hidden in the numbers is a 3-point bonus if your QB passes at least 300 yards. You’ll also receive a 3-point bump for logging at least 100 rushing yards. And you’ll receive another 3-point bump for logging 100+ receiving yards.

You want players who can turn in those numbers.

QB Bonus Points
In the QB slot, that means keeping an eye on Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan for starters heading into the season. They were the head honchos for QBs last year, will they do it again?

Your receivers can bring you a lot of bonus points. You have 3 WR slots to fill at DraftKings, and each one can potentially earn you 3 points by receiving 100+ yards. Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill,lead the pack last season. Each one turned in an average of 100+ yards per game. Again with these gentlemen, will they be able to do it again?

The rushing bonus at DraftKings is tougher to earn. There are two reasons. First, you only have two running back slots to fill at DraftKings. There isn’t as much opportunity in your roster as you have with your three receivers.

Second, there aren’t a lot of RBs who maintain an average of 100+ rushing yards per game (current group).

Bottom line: the bonus points at DraftKings can come in handy, especially when you’re trying to squeak past other team owners in a small league or 50/50. But don’t rely on them. They’re tough to earn.

5. Establish Your Bankroll Metrics

As I mentioned earlier, bankroll management in daily fantasy sports involves more than just keeping track of how much cash you have at risk. You need to start with a plan that gives you control over your daily and weekly spend. Then, you need to figure out how many bets you should have in play at one time.

The most reliable way to do that is to come up with a formula that reflects your results. As you win more contests, your optimal number of bets will change.

Here are a few guidelines I recommend if you’re just getting started in fantasy sports.

• First, limit your daily spend to 10% of your entire bankroll. If you deposit $200, don’t risk more than $20 in entry fees each day.
• Second, track your wins and losses. Make a note of the date, sport, contest format, field size, entry fee, and dollars won or lost. It doesn’t matter if you do this with a legal pad and pencil or on a spreadsheet. I prefer the latter since it allows me to sort the data. The most important thing is that you do it.
• Third, use a formula that takes your results into account to determine how much money you should risk each day (or week for fantasy football). There are several formulas you can use. A lot of veteran fantasy players use the Kelly criterion. We’ll discuss that method, as well as other bankroll management issues, in more detail in the near future.

Those are the basics when it comes to bankroll management. The key is to reach a point where you don’t have to think about how much to play. Your metrics will lay it all out for you.

Does Draftkings Have A Sportsbook

More Awesome Reading Awaits!

• DraftKings review.

Previously, I published a comprehensive article on teaser betting strategy which explains what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teaser bets on an advanced level, blind teaser bets that are likely profitable, industry secrets and more. If you haven’t read that article, I strongly suggest doing so before continuing.

Now, moving forward, a topic I didn’t discuss in any detail was special teasers. These are the ones referred to at sports betting sites as “sweetheart teasers” and “monster teasers”. The name is not a standard, but the concept is the same. If you’re not familiar with these, a common example is a 10 point three team NFL teaser, generally offered at -110 to -130 pricing.

To give a further example, there are 3 teams you’re interested in betting this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Rather than betting these straight at -110 or -105, or putting them in a standard parlay, or standard teaser, you can put them in what many sites call a special, monster, or sweetheart teaser. If you do so, you’ll have a single bet of: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread has been moved 10 points. Once again, you’ll need to risk between $11 and $13 per $10 you want to win, depending if the betting site offers these at -110, -120, -130.

This is only one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer four team 13 point teasers, while 5dimes.eu offers teaser betting for 2-15 teams on every half point between 5.5 and 17, as well as a 20 point teaser option. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I’ll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers.

Ties Often Lose

The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose. This is not the case at all sites, but it is at many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.

Best Sites for 10 Point Teasers

Here are the odds and rules for 10 point sweetheart teasers at four of our recommended betting sites:

www.Bovada.lv – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Sportsbook – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Lose)
5Dimes.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Bookmaker.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Reduce)

Teaser On Draftkings App

Sportsbook obviously offers poor odds for this wager type. These guys are good in other areas, but for this type of teaser we’ll leave them out. Bookmaker also offers worse odds, but has its advantages. At Bookmaker these teasers can be bet for as much as $20,000 per bet, while most other sites have $500 max limits. Also Bookmaker has ties reduce, meaning if one or more legs push while all others win, the bet is refunded. However, at -120 this is not enough to make it worth it, so for most, www.Bovada.lv and 5Dimes.eu are the best sites for monster teasers.

Are Sweetheart Teasers Sucker Bets?

For years I heard Sweetheart teasers are sucker bets, but to be honest I hadn’t looked at them in any great detail until writing this article. So with that, let’s go ahead and take a look together:

Now we already know, or at least should know, considering it’s the most common price charged in sports betting, that at -110 you’ll need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even over the long run. When there are three bets which are part of that -110 wager, what we need to do is convert 52.38% into a decimal of .5238 and then find which number times itself three times equals .5238, or in math terms: what is the cube root of .5238. Using a cube root calculator, I quickly determined that .8061 x .8061 x .8061 = .5238. Therefore, for a leg in a three team teaser at -110 to have neutral expected value, it must win 80.61% of the time.

After doing this math, I’m already discouraged. It seems rare that I’m going to pick up an extra 30.61% in win probability by adding 10 points, especially when pushes count as losses. I decided, however, to make an educated guess of which subsets of point spreads have the most value in a 10 point teaser. Now, what I know is that in the NFL the most common margin of victories in order are: 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13 and 2. So I want to come up with subsets that cross as many of these key numbers as possible. The six that I decided were most likely to have value, if any subset has value at all, are-10.5 to -12.5 favorites, -1.5 to -2.5 favorites, -4.5 to -6.5 favorites, +4.5 to +5.5 underdogs, +7.5 to +9.5 underdogs and +11.5 to +12.5 underdogs.

My next step was looking at tons of historical data to determine how often teams push at each number crossed in a ten point teaser, and then add them together to get a rough idea if teasing that subset with ten points might have value. After doing, this I eliminated the -1.5 to -2.5 and the +7.5 to +9.5 subsets; teasing those ten points only increased their win rates by around 17%. The other four subsets were close enough to warrant a more detailed analysis.

As a professional gambler I’ve been compiling NFL statistics for years into databases I can use for analysis when needed. While this might sounds complex, for calculating teasers, push probabilities, etc., it is really not all that difficult. While I can’t confirm their accuracy, I’ve heard many recommend atsdatabase.com and sportsdatabase.com for NFL data. Heading to my database, I was able to find the following historical results for 10 point teasers:

-10.5 to -12.5 teased 10 points
Since 2006: 53-15 (77.94%)
Since 2001: 97-30 (76.37%)

Draftkings Teaser Rules

-4.5 to -6.5 teased 10 points: (32.7% at -6.5) to (31.6% at -4.5)
Since 2006: 210-61 (77.49%)
Since 2001: 391-108 (78.36%)

+4.5 to +5.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 96-24 (80.00%)
Since 2001: 213-58 (78.60%)

+11.5 to +12.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 24-8 (75%)
Since 2001: 41-11 (78.85)

I’ve now dug into these enough to determine with 98 percent certainty, there is no value to be had in standard three team ten point teasers.

Hopefully, this is not too discouraging. A thinking sports bettor, one who often makes the most profit, is someone who has lots of ideas, curiosities, theories and hunches. Rather than betting these and seeing if they win, they get out a blank sheet of paper, a few spread sheets, etc. and run tests. Bookies are smart, so more times than not we’re going to be disappointed in finding out that our brilliant idea was not +EV.

The good news is that as we practice our skills and as our knowledge grows, in time we can spot +EV bets much quicker. As far as teasers go, outside the box +EV teasers exist on a weekly basis.

5Dimes.eu has 560 different types of teasers available. They offer 2-15 team teasers on every half point between 5 and 17, and also 20 point teasers, with two different formats regarding ties for each. While initially doing the work takes some time, and it might be a “tough way to make an easy living”, becoming an expert at football teasers and then managing your bankroll will make you easy money over time.

Now, if you’re a recreational bettor just looking for blind bets, stick to the strategies we mention in our teaser strategy guide. In that same article, those of you aspiring to or currently betting professionally can find further advanced strategies.

Remember teaser betting often wins in streaks; don’t get over confident or carried away with your bankroll. Bet responsibly, and we wish you the best of luck!

Draftkings Teaser Bet

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy